Cheap points are not all built the same
Mitchell and Bogle both hit double digits for 4.5m in gameweek 3, but the underlying numbers tell two very different stories.
A 15-point haul from a 4.5m player feels like finding cash in a coat you have not worn since April. You do not ask how it got there. You just put it in your pocket.
Then you look under the bonnet. 
Mitchell scored two goals from an xG of 0.66 in gameweek 3. That is a left back arriving in legitimate, dangerous areas and taking full advantage. Contrast that with 
Isak, who cost £9.0m, scored twice, and did it off an xG of just 0.21. One player finished half-chances from tight angles. The other spent his afternoon standing inside the six-yard box.
15Mitchell points4.5m defender
14Bogle points4.5m defender
13Isak points9.0m forwardTop point scorers in gameweek 3 across price tiers.
Low prices are not created equal
The mistake after a cheap player hauls is assuming all budget returns come from luck. Some do. But sometimes a 4.5m defender is quietly given a tactical role that turns him into an extra forward when his team attacks.
Look at how the three biggest scores in gameweek 3 stack up when you remove the goals and look at the chances.
MitchellBogleIsakGameweek 3 stats. Bogle matched his xG while Isak ran 1.79 goals over his.
Bogle put up 0.90 xG in 60 minutes for £4.5m. That is higher than 
Haaland generated in open play across his 90 minutes. When a full-back accumulates nearly a full expected goal in an hour, he is not just wandering up for corners. He is playing as a winger in possession.
Isak walked away with 13 points and two goals, but his underlying chances were worth 0.21 xG. He ran 1.79 goals above his expected baseline in one afternoon. Take the points if you had him, but do not buy him this week expecting that level of clinical finishing to hold up.
Expensive names bring a ceiling, cheap ones bring noise
The urge to sell Haaland or 
Ødegaard whenever a bargain option scores twice is always present. It is also usually a mistake.
In gameweek 3, Haaland posted an xGI of 1.54. Ødegaard recorded 1.60 xGI. You pay a premium for those names because their baseline chance creation is relentless. They do not need a deflection to salvage their match.
Gameweek 3 performance. Highlighted players cost 6.0m or less.
When cheap players hit double figures, the easy reaction is to bundle them together as short-term flukes. But Tavernier at £6.0m generated 1.06 xGI while putting up 9 defensive actions in one game. He is involved in every phase of play for Bournemouth.
Underlying volume shows where to save money
Three matches is a small sample. Only 13 of 307 players who featured in gameweek 3 scored double digits, and several relied on heavy finishing variance to get there.
If you need to free up cash before the deadline, look for players under £8.0m who are matching premium rates for xGI per 90 across the whole season so far.
Season to date, minimum 180 minutes played. Highlights show players above 0.90 xGI per 90.
Barry at £5.6m has an xGI per 90 of 0.92 over his 237 minutes this season. He has scored once from an xG of 2.31. That is a forward sitting 1.31 goals behind his underlying numbers, getting into the right box every twenty minutes, waiting for his luck to turn.
Before you make your moves for gameweek 4, check who generated the chances and who just scored from distance. Sell the one-off worldies and buy the budget defenders who are actually getting into the box.