From the model
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FPL analysis from the FPL Stats model: transfer targets, chip timing, fixture swings, and what the numbers actually say each gameweek.
Giving Haaland the armband remains the sensible play
The top captain options for gameweek 7 feature a clear favourite and a few fascinating alternatives.
Defenders have an unfair route to extra points
Gameweek 6 proved defenders are twice as likely to hit defensive thresholds as midfielders.
Henderson doubled his season output in 90 minutes
Gameweek 6 delivered 11 double-digit hauls, but the underlying data shows who actually earned them.
Saka and Mbeumo are being ignored for the wrong reasons
Looking past recent points tables reveals two prime transfers before gameweek 7.
Cheap points are not all created equal
Gameweek 6 showed why picking budget players based on expected goal involvement beats chasing last week's lucky hauls.
Stop chasing last month points and buy expected goals
The underlying production shows several heavily overlooked players ready to burst over the next five matches.
Bruno Fernandes is the captain choice this week
Why the Manchester United midfielder sits above Erling Haaland for gameweek 6.
Your squad is surprisingly safe this week
Start probabilities across key picks offer zero reason to panic before the deadline.
How to buy your heavy hitters without breaking the bench
Cheap enablers at 5.5m and under who actually play and accumulate points.
Defenders have a much lower bar for extra points
Clearing and tackling paid off for budget options in gameweek 5, but do not mistake one busy afternoon for a habit.
Fulham and Newcastle own the next six weeks
Five gameweeks of noise are behind us and the fixture swings from gameweek 6 point straight towards mid-priced attackers.
Cheap points are not created equal
A budget haul is only worth chasing if the underlying numbers came with it.
Semenyo made pure magic out of nothing
A wild fifth weekend delivered 15 double-digit hauls while average scores barely scraped past three.
The budget enablers doing real work
Cheap enablers only work if they play, so look at defensive volume and fixture runs before shifting funds upfront.
Time to bin Brighton and double up on United
Four matches of underlying data show a massive schedule turn starting in gameweek five.
Stop chasing last week's points before gameweek five
The model likes two Manchester United midfielders and a overlooked Hull winger for the upcoming five match run.
Do not overthink the captain armband this week
Taking a punt away from the main template comes with a specific tax you might not want to pay.
Nobody big is actually getting benched this weekend
Start probability numbers show the rumoured injury scares before gameweek 5 are mostly nonsense.
Four gameweeks in and the numbers are lying
A look at who actually earned their hauls in gameweek 4 and who is living on borrowed time.
Cheap points are not all created equal
Gameweek 4 delivered huge scores from budget picks, but the underlying numbers split the real finds from the flukes.
Defender threshold makes cheap points easier to reach
Defensive contribution points heavily favour defenders over midfielders after four gameweeks.
Manchester City have the kindest run ahead
Three matches into the season, fixture difficulty swings heavily towards Manchester City and Crystal Palace.
Palmer leads the shortlist despite fitness doubts
Cole Palmer edges Erling Haaland for the armband in gameweek 4 as Chelsea face Hull City.
Nobody is buying the best players in the game
Three gameweeks of underlying data reveal the transfer targets you should actually buy ahead of gameweek 4.
Nobody is actually injured this week
Start probabilities for gameweek 4 show your premiums are far safer than social media claims.
Newcastle offer the cheapest route to actual minutes
Three gameweeks of noise have created some cheap bench fill that actually starts every week.
Cheap points are not all built the same
Mitchell and Bogle both hit double digits for 4.5m in gameweek 3, but the underlying numbers tell two very different stories.
Midfielders are losing the defensive points lottery
A lower bar for defenders makes defensive bonus points a rigged game for central midfielders.
Cheap defenders topped the ranks in gameweek 3
A wild week saw 13 double digit hauls and a 2.97 average as budget wildcards outscored the premiums.
Nobody is injured so stop panicking this week
Start probabilities show almost no selection drama across the key template players ahead of gameweek 3.
Haaland is still the captain pick
Man City host Coventry in gameweek 3, but high ownership changes the math.
Hull defender Egan is the best cheap bench enabler
Secure minutes and steady defensive contributions make four million budget options essential ahead of gameweek 3.
Cheap points rarely stay cheap for very long
A look at who actually earned their gameweek 2 hauls and who simply got lucky.
Target Manchester City and Newcastle as the fixture runs swing
Three clubs face exceptionally kind runs over the next five weeks while Arsenal and Chelsea brace for trouble.
Stop chasing last week's points and buy Mbeumo
Manchester United's winger has put up 2.70 expected goal involvement in two matches while sitting in far fewer teams than his teammates.
Cheap defenders have a far easier route to bonus points
The lower bar for defensive actions makes budget centre backs viable options again.
Bruno Fernandes was not meant to score twenty three points
A wild second week delivered fourteen double-digit hauls and left expected goals looking thoroughly confused.
Bruno Fernandes is the best captain pick this week
Manchester United host Ipswich while Erling Haaland faces a trickier trip to Crystal Palace.
Nobody is actually getting benched this week
The rotation panic for gameweek 2 is entirely in your head.
Ignore the opening weekend points and buy these four
The model likes players hiding beneath low ownership and high underlying numbers.
Gameweek 1 was won by defenders nobody owned
Brighton full backs, Hull centre halves, and 19 double-digit hauls that mostly came from the cheap seats.