Palmer leads the shortlist despite fitness doubts
Cole Palmer edges Erling Haaland for the armband in gameweek 4 as Chelsea face Hull City.
You spent three weeks staring at 
Haaland because handing him the armband felt like the only sensible choice. Now 
Chelsea get 
Hull City at home and the math changes.
Our model ranks 
Palmer as the top captain pick this week, just ahead of the Norwegian. That might look like a brave call, but a look at the defensive strength ratings explains why the order flipped.
Ranked by model preference for gameweek 4. Palmer highlights the top pick.
The case for Palmer rests almost entirely on who he is playing. Chelsea face a Hull City side sitting on a 98 rating for fixture ease, which is as close to a defensive open door as you will see this season.
There is one obvious snag. Palmer carries a start probability of 0.9 in our numbers. It is not a massive doubt, but when you hand someone the double points, you want to be certain he actually walks out of the tunnel. If you cannot stomach that slight risk, João Pedro sits third on the shortlist at 7.7m with a clean 1.0 start probability. He gets the same soft fixture with guaranteed minutes.
ChelseaMan CityLiverpooleasierharderInternal model rating, 0 to 100. Not FPL's fixture rating.
Ease scores from 0 to 100 where higher means an easier match.
The case against Haaland is not about his ability. It is about Manchester United away. Manchester City face a defensive ease score of 0 this week. That is the hardest possible fixture on the board. He still comes in second because he plays 90 minutes every time and converts chances at a ridiculous clip, but the ceiling is lower in a derby away from home than it is for a playmaker hosting a promoted side.
Further down the shortlist, rotation risk starts creeping in across the top teams.
Gakpo
Isak
SakaStart probability measured as a fraction out of 1.0 for gameweek 4.
Saka sits 10th on the shortlist despite Arsenal travelling to 
Sunderland, mainly because his start probability drops to 0.84. Isak is also flagged at 0.9 for Liverpool. When Gakpo offers a 1.0 start probability at 7.2m against a 
Fulham defence rated 84 for ease, taking a gamble on half-fit premiums becomes hard to justify.
If you own Palmer, make sure he is selected as captain before the deadline, but keep a reliable vice-captain on a guaranteed starter like Haaland or João Pedro just in case those fitness niggles keep him on the bench.