Four gameweeks in and the numbers are lying
A look at who actually earned their hauls in gameweek 4 and who is living on borrowed time.
The average manager made 3 points per player in gameweek 4. You probably spent your Saturday afternoon watching a 6.0m midfielder score twice from half a shot while your expensive captain hit the post. That is fantasy football, but the underlying numbers tell us who gets to do it again next week and who spent all their luck in one afternoon.
Fourteen players put up double-digit scores this week. Most of them did it by converting tiny chances into wild points totals.
14Double-digit haulsin gameweek 4
3Average pointsacross 307 players
28Goals scoredin gameweek 4
20Defenders hit action thresholdout of 106 playedHeadline counts across all 307 players who featured in gameweek 4.
The top of the leaderboard looks like a random generator hit the low-ownership bracket. Groß led the week with 17 points for Brighton, backed up by Schade and Bogle on 15 apiece.
Groß took 3 bonus points alongside a goal and two assists in gameweek 4.
A goal from 0.10 expected goals and a goal from 0.80 expected goals look identical on the scoresheet. They pay the same 4 or 5 points. But one of them is a player getting into prime positions, and the other is a bloke hitting a rare volley.
In gameweek 4, Schade scored two goals for Brentford from an xG of 0.21. His goals minus xG for the single match sat at 1.79. Belloumi came off the bench for 59 minutes, scored twice from 0.17 xG, and finished on 1.83 goals minus xG. That is unsustainable finishing.
Compare that to Groß. He put up 1.01 expected goal involvement in gameweek 4 through genuine chance creation, finishing with a goal and two assists. He was actually getting into the right spots rather than throwing darts in the dark.
GroßSchadeGroß earned his haul through high chance volume, while Schade relied on extreme finishing efficiency in gameweek 4.
Four gameweeks is a tiny sample size. It is barely a month of football, so we shouldn't burn our wildcard over a bad Saturday. But looking at the total underlying numbers over the first four gameweeks shows us who is due a reward.
Thiago has started all four matches for Brentford and played 352 minutes. He has accumulated 2.54 expected goal involvement and has zero goals and zero assists to show for it. His goals minus xG sits at -2.41. He has managed just 5 points across four matches, but the work is there.
Similarly, 
Barry at 
Everton has racked up 2.98 xG in 327 minutes across four starts. He has scored once, leaving him at -1.98 goals minus xG. He is getting into the box, taking shots, and missing them. Eventually, those turn into points, and at 5.6m he is sitting mostly unowned.
Negative numbers mean the player scored fewer goals than their xG total across gameweeks 1 to 4.
On the flip side, players like 
Rogers have 3 goals from 1.39 xG across four starts, sitting on +1.61 goals minus xG. Enjoy the points if you own him, but do not expect him to convert every half-chance until May.
Before you sell your cold forwards before gameweek 5, check their xG column. If they are getting the chances, keep the faith for one more week and let someone else buy the weekly fluke.