Cheap points are not all created equal
Gameweek 4 delivered huge scores from budget picks, but the underlying numbers split the real finds from the flukes.
A cheap midfielder scoring two goals from two shots sounds like a bargain. A budget winger outscoring a £15.5m striker sounds like a shift in power. But a 15-point haul built on 0.31 expected goal involvement is just luck in a bright shirt.
In gameweek 4, 11 of the 14 double-digit hauls came from players costing £6.0m or less. The temptation is to strip out the premium assets and spread the cash around. Before doing that, look at how those points were actually made.
17Top haulGroß (£5.6m)
11Cheap hauls£6.0m or under
1.83Highest overperformanceBelloumi (£5.0m)Gameweek 4 double-digit returns and variance across all price points.
Not all cheap hauls carry the same weight. Belloumi scored 13 points against 
Chelsea from an expected goal involvement of 0.23 in gameweek 4. He finished two tiny chances that will not drop every week. 
Schade landed 15 points off 0.31 expected goal involvement, outscoring his expected goals by 1.79.
Then you have Groß and Davis. Groß put up 17 points with an expected goal involvement of 1.01, creating real danger and taking six defensive actions. Davis managed 14 points from left back with 0.71 expected goal involvement. One pair was handed a lottery win, the other put in the work.
Highlighted players generated over 0.40 expected goal involvement in GW4.
When you compare these budget explosions to a heavy hitter like 
Haaland, the difference is obvious. Haaland scored 9 points in gameweek 4. That feels modest for a player priced at £15.5m. Yet his underlying expected goal involvement was 0.88 in a single match against 
Manchester United. He does that almost every time he steps on the pitch.
GroßSchade
HaalandGameweek 4 statistics. Schade relies heavily on finishing variance.
The premium price tag buys volume and repeatability. Haaland leads the entire league with 0.96 expected goal involvement per 90 across the first four weeks. His underlying numbers match his output.
If you want value that actually lasts, look for budget players whose underlying thread matches the premium rate. 
Barry sits at £5.6m and has generated 3.12 expected goal involvement across four starts. He has managed just one goal because his finishing variance is minus 1.98. The points have not arrived yet, but the work is happening.
Over the first four gameweeks. Highlighted players cost £6.0m or less.
Calvert-Lewin is another budget option doing real work. At £6.0m, he sits on 2.56 expected goal involvement for the season, putting up 0.70 per 90. He picked up 10 points this week from 0.87 expected goal involvement. That is not a fluke; that is a starting forward getting quality service.
The lesson from this week is not to sell your premiums for whoever posted a monster score on Saturday. It is to split the budget luck from the budget volume. Buy the players who get into the box, not the ones who got lucky from distance.
Check your squad before the deadline. Sell the budget midfielder who overperformed his numbers by two goals, and buy the £5.6m forward who is quietly getting almost an expected goal per game.