Giving Haaland the armband remains the sensible play

Three quarters of managers already have Haaland sitting in their team. The hard part is not spending 15.6m to buy him, but deciding if giving him the armband every single week is lazy or logical.

This week Man City host Ipswich at home. Our internal model puts Man City's attack ease rating for this fixture at 100 out of 100, which is as high as the scale goes. Ignoring Haaland in a fixture like that is a direct bet against the most reliable scorer in the game.

HaalandMCI forward, 15.6m

1 rank

SemenyoMCI midfielder, 8.3m

2 rank

RayaARS goalkeeper, 6.1m

3 rank

B.FernandesMUN midfielder, 11.9m

4 rank

GabrielARS defender, 7.9m

5 rank

Top five captain picks for gameweek 7 ranked by our internal model.

The case against captaining Haaland comes down to rank gain. With 75.2% ownership across the game, handed the armband by millions, his successful weeks protect your rank rather than propel it. If you want to shoot up the leaderboard, you need to look slightly further down the shortlist.

His teammate Semenyo ranks second on our shortlist this week. Owned by just 13.7% of teams, he offers the exact same fixture advantage against Ipswich while coming in at almost half the price at 8.3m. If Semenyo matches or beats Haaland on Saturday, anyone taking that gamble will secure a massive green arrow.

75.2%Haaland ownershipSelected by 3 in 4 managers

13.7%Semenyo ownershipDifferential captain route

100MCI attack scoreEasiest score on our scale

Key statistics for Man City options ahead of gameweek 7.

Beyond the obvious picks in Manchester, the shortlist offers a few intriguing names. Bruno Fernandes sits fourth overall prior to an away trip to face Leeds. Man United face a tough fixture on paper with an attack ease rating of only 20, but his ownership sits at 34.7% and he controls the set pieces and penalties.

Then there are the defensive options. Raya and Gabriel take third and fifth place on the shortlist as Arsenal visit Nottingham Forest. Arsenal carry a defence ease rating of 93 for this match, making a clean sheet look very plausible even if their attack rating sits at a modest 12.

GW7GW8GW9

Man City

IPS (H)AVL (A)BHA (H)

Bournemouth

SUN (H)MUN (A)LEE (H)

Tottenham

COV (H)CHE (A)CRY (H)

easierharderInternal model rating, 0 to 100. Not FPL's fixture rating.

Fixture difficulty on a 0-100 scale where higher numbers mean easier fixtures.

The factor that destroys a captain choice faster than anything else is starting probability. A ten-minute cameo off the bench double-multiplies a single appearance point into two, effectively burning your armband.

While Haaland, Semenyo, and Raya all carry a perfect 1.0 start probability in our model this week, other names on the broader shortlist carry tiny flags. Gabriel sits at 0.99 start probability, while Cunha drops to 0.98.

HaalandMCI forward

100%

SemenyoMCI midfielder

100%

RayaARS goalkeeper

100%

GabrielARS defender

99%

CunhaMUN midfielder

98%

Model start probabilities for gameweek 7.

Lower down the shortlist, lower-owned options present interesting punts if you are chasing points early in the season. Van Hecke features at seventh place, priced at just 4.9m with 6.3% ownership. Tottenham face Coventry at home with a defence ease rating of 95. Meanwhile, Rogers sits eighth for Chelsea with 45.0% ownership as they visit Everton.

SemenyoB.FernandesCunha

Price

£8.3m

£11.9m

£7.9m

Ownership

13.7%

34.7%

6.4%

Model rank

2

4

6

Comparing alternative captain candidates behind Haaland for gameweek 7.

If you own Haaland, this is not the week to get clever. The fixture is as good as it gets, his start probability is secure, and three quarters of the game will hand him the armband. Hand him the armband before the deadline and let your differentials carry the risk elsewhere.