Henderson doubled his season output in 90 minutes
Gameweek 6 delivered 11 double-digit hauls, but the underlying data shows who actually earned them.
18Top scoreHenderson (4.9m)Gameweek 6 overall figures across 315 featured players.
The opening month of FPL is designed to make you feel foolish. You spend six weeks staring at spreadsheets, only for Henderson to score 18 points in a single afternoon from 0.14 xG.
He scored twice, grabbed an assist, and took home three bonus points against Bournemouth. Prior to this weekend, his total attacking output was largely non-existent. This was one match, and two goals from chances worth a combined 0.14 xG is the definition of a flash in the pan.
Highest individual point totals in gameweek 6. Highlighted players represent budget options under 5.5m.
Defensive contributions did the damage
Clean sheets were tricky to find, but 24 of 107 defenders hit the threshold for defensive actions. De Cuyper walked away with 15 points after combining a clean sheet with a goal against Sunderland. He managed it in 67 minutes.
It was a similar story down the board. 
O'Shea and 
Ouattara both found the net for Ipswich, collecting 11 and 10 points respectively despite conceding. Ouattara generated a tiny 0.02 xG. That is a 4.0m defender scoring from a chance you could miss with a bucket. It will not happen again next week.
HendersonDokuComparing extreme finishing variance in gameweek 6. High goalsMinusXg indicates regression is likely.
Doku came off the bench for 34 minutes against Liverpool, accumulated 0.05 xG, and walked off with 12 points. He scored one goal and set up another. His goal came from a variance of 0.95 above his expected underlying chances. It is wonderful if you owned him for 34 minutes. It is a terrible reason to buy him for gameweek 7.
Who actually earned their output
If you want repeatability, look at 
McGinn and 
Cherki. McGinn produced 0.87 xG against Brentford, got his goal, and took 10 points. That is a player getting into the right penalty box locations rather than hitting a miracle strike.
João Pedro also put up solid numbers. His two goals came from 0.60 xG and 0.70 xGI. He is finishing well, but he is also standing where the ball drops.
Then there is the season-long view. 
Rogers scored again in gameweek 6 to reach 38 points for the season. He has four goals from 1.90 xG. His goalsMinusXg sits at 2.10. That is hot finishing, and while 44 defensive actions across six games keeps his baseline high, those shot conversions will cool down eventually.
Expected goal involvement per 90 minutes across the first 6 gameweeks. Minimum 60 minutes played.
Barry remains the quiet engine of the budget forwards. His xGI per 90 sits at 0.82 across 502 minutes. He has 4.40 xG for the season and only three goals to show for it. His goalsMinusXg is -1.40. He is missing chances, but he is generating them at a rate matched only by elite assets. When a 5.7m forward gets that many opportunities, the goals catch up.
Six matches is still a tiny sample size, but the trend line is clearing. Stop chasing last week's 0.05 xG volleys. Check your transfers before Friday's deadline and buy the player who is missing taps, not the one who hit the top corner from the touchline.