Bruno Fernandes is the captain choice this week

Three out of four managers own Haaland. Most of them will put the armband on him without looking at the fixture. That is usually fine, but this week the model puts Bruno Fernandes at the top of the pile for gameweek 6.

B.FernandesMUN midfielder, 11.9m

1 rank

HaalandMCI forward, 15.6m

2 rank

Gibbs-WhiteNFO midfielder, 8.0m

3 rank

GabrielARS defender, 8.0m

4 rank

MbeumoMUN midfielder, 7.9m

5 rank

Ranked by model order for gameweek 6. Lower is better.

The case against Haaland comes down to location. Manchester City head to Anfield this week. On our internal scale where 100 is as easy as it gets, Liverpool away carries a defensive ease rating of 38 for City's attack. He will probably still score, because he is Haaland, but it is not the fixture to double his points.

Manchester United host Tottenham. Spurs present an attack ease rating of 70 and a defence ease rating of 71 for United. That leaves Fernandes facing a back line with plenty of space behind it. He is owned by 38.6 per cent of teams and carries a clean 1.0 start probability.

GW6GW7GW8

Man Utd

TOT (H)LEE (A)BOU (H)

Man City

LIV (A)IPS (H)AVL (A)

Arsenal

LEE (H)NFO (A)EVE (H)

easierharderInternal model rating, 0 to 100. Not FPL's fixture rating.

Scale 0-100 where higher is easier. Attack rating shown.

Start probability is the quiet killer of captain picks. If your captain comes off the bench for eight minutes, your double points are gone.

In the top six model picks, Saka carries real doubt with a 0.93 start probability for Arsenal at home to Leeds. That is enough to knock him out of serious captain consideration, even in a comfortable home game. Gabriel sits at 0.99 and Cunha at 0.98. The top three options all carry a 1.0 start probability.

B.FernandesHaalandGibbs-White

Price

£11.9m

£15.6m

£8.0m

Ownership

38.6%

73.7%

15.7%

Start Probability

1

1

1

Data for gameweek 6.

If you want a differential, Gibbs-White ranks third overall. Nottingham Forest visit Crystal Palace, where Forest's attack ease rating hits 90 out of 100. At 15.7 per cent ownership and 8.0m, he offers a way to move up the ranks if the popular picks stall.

Mbeumo sits fifth in the model rankings, giving Manchester United two players in the top five. He costs 7.9m and is owned by 20.7 per cent of managers.

73.7%Haaland ownership73.7 in 100 managers

38City fixture easeLIV (A) attack rating

70United fixture easeTOT (H) attack rating

Gameweek 6 underlying metrics and ratings.

One match in isolation never guarantees a return, and Haaland can make any defence look silly on his day. But over fifty identical weekends, backing the playmaker at home against a soft defensive record beats taking the away trip to Anfield.

Lock in Fernandes before the deadline and let the rest of your mini-league cap Haaland away from home.