Stop chasing last month points and buy expected goals
The underlying production shows several heavily overlooked players ready to burst over the next five matches.
Bukayo Saka has accumulated 3.22 expected goals and zero assists from 0.98 expected assists. He sits in 13.5 per cent of teams. Meanwhile, 28.1 per cent of managers own 
Pascal Groß, who has turned 1.77 expected goals and 0.86 expected assists into four goals and three assists. That is pure luck, and luck eventually runs dry.
If you want to jump ranks over the next five matches, buy the players creating real chances rather than the ones riding an unsustainable wave.
Master Transfer Score calculated over a five match lookahead. Highlighted players carry low ownership.
Production rate beats recent points every time
Saka generates 0.91 expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. That places him second among all midfielders in the game over the opening five matches. His 32 points look modest only because his team-mates missed every chance he created. He has underperformed his expected assists by 0.98. The returns will come when those shots start going in.
Bryan Mbeumo offers a similar story. He holds an expected goal involvement per 90 of 0.77 over 450 minutes. He has missed his expected goals tally by 1.07, scoring twice from 3.07 expected goals. Owned by 20.7 per cent of managers, he is getting into high-quality positions twice every three matches.
SakaMbeumoData covers gameweeks 1 to 5. Saka leads across underlying volume.
Then look at forward lines. 
Thiago has scored once from 3.13 expected goals. He has 10 points and an ownership of 9.0 per cent. His expected goal involvement per 90 is 0.67 over 442 minutes. He is underperforming his chances by 2.13 goals. That is the biggest negative finishing gap of any forward in the data.
-2.13Thiago finishing gap1 goal from 3.13 xG
-1.50Barry finishing gap2 goals from 3.50 xG0.91Saka xGI / 9013.5% ownershipSeason totals across the opening five gameweeks.
Louie Barry sits in 8.2 per cent of squads for £5.6m. He has 3.50 expected goals and has scored twice. His 0.79 expected goal involvement per 90 ranks him level with 
Alexander Isak. One costs £9.1m and is owned by 22.4 per cent. The other costs £5.6m and gets ignored because two of his shots hit the post.
Schedule openings for cheap differentials
The model gives Mohamed Belloumi a transfer rating of 96.2 out of 100 over the next five matches. He costs £5.1m and features in 5.0 per cent of teams. Hull face Everton, Brentford and 
Ipswich at home during this run, giving them strong fixture ease over the coming month.
NewcastleHullMan CityeasierharderInternal model rating, 0 to 100. Not FPL's fixture rating.
Internal fixture ratings scaled 0 to 100 where higher scores represent easier matches.
Harvey Barnes sits in 5.5 per cent of teams at £6.1m. Newcastle have the easiest fixture schedule in the league over the next five matches with an ease rating of 73.1.
Five matches is a small sample size, but the trend line is clear. Move on from players who converted half-chances in August, and bring in the shooters who are due a change of luck before Saturday's deadline.