17 Sept 20262 min read

Stop chasing last week's points before gameweek five

The model likes two Manchester United midfielders and a overlooked Hull winger for the upcoming five match run.

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Three out of four managers own João Pedro. He has 33 points, three goals, and three assists. He also has an xGI per 90 of 0.59, which ranks well behind the game's top mid-priced midfielders. You are paying for six goal returns built on 2.36 expected goal involvement. That finish will regress.

The trick ahead of gameweek 5 is finding players where the underlying chances exceed the current points tally.

The gap between points and production

B.Fernandes sits top of the transfer model with a score of 98.9 out of 100. He has four returns, 3.41 xGI, and a fixture ease rating of 65.6 over the next five matches. At 41.2% ownership, he is hardly a secret.

His teammate Mbeumo is the more interesting case. Owned by 22.5% of teams, Mbeumo ranks second among midfielders with a 95.1 Master Score. He has scored two goals from 2.80 xG, leaving him with a negative finishing variance of -0.80. He is getting into the right spots and missing slightly, which keeps his price at £7.9m while his underlying xGI per 90 sits at 0.84.

Saka offers a similar story at Arsenal. He has 30 points and three goals, but his ownership sits at just 12.5%. His 3.31 xGI is fourth among all players in the game across four gameweeks. His 0.89 xGI per 90 beats Rogers at 0.66 and João Pedro at 0.59. People sold him during a tricky opening run, and his underlying volume remains strong.

Schedule shifts give budget enablers a run

A good fixture schedule turns decent underlying numbers into actual points. Hull City top the fixture rating charts over the next five matches with an 85.4 score.

Belloumi costs £5.1m and is owned by 3.5% of managers. He ranks fifth overall in the transfer model with a 92.9 score. Facing Newcastle, Everton, Fulham, Brentford, and Ipswich, he gives you bench flexibility and starts every week in an attacking role.

Manchester City — Five gameweek fixture runs from gameweek 5

In defence, Tarkowski sits top of the defender ranks with a 90.8 Master Score. Everton open their next run with home games against Ipswich and an away trip to Hull. At £6.1m and 13.5% ownership, he is a cleaner route into defensive returns than chasing Raya or Gabriel, whose schedules harden after gameweek 6.

Sell players who rely on low xG finishing, buy Mbeumo before his variance flips, and lock in transfers before Friday night.