Ignore the opening weekend points and buy these four
The model likes players hiding beneath low ownership and high underlying numbers.
One gameweek is complete. Half your mini-league is already panicking about missing out on a one-week spike, while the rest are staring at a template they picked a month ago.
The Master Transfer Score ranks players on a 0 to 100 scale using underlying production and upcoming run ease. The standard move is to buy the top name on the list. The clever move is to look at the gap between what the model likes and what the rest of the game actually owns.
Master Transfer Score over the next five gameweeks. Highlighted players are under 10% owned.
The template is looking in the wrong places
João Pedro sits in 68.4% of teams, yet Chelsea face a run rated just 28.4 for fixture ease over the next five gameweeks. Meanwhile, Tavernier sits at a 95.4 Master Score, second overall among midfielders, but sits in just 2.5% of squads. Bournemouth carry a run rating of 66.8, starting with Everton at home this week.
Then there is the Liverpool midfield. Everyone bought Szoboszlai, who is owned by 43.4% after scoring 8 points from 1.12 xGI in gameweek 1. He ranks first overall on a 95.9 score. But Gakpo carries a 93.5 score at the exact same £7.0m price point, with only 6.5% ownership.
1.10Isak xGI0 points scored
1.08Thiago xGI0 points scored
1.02Wissa xGI4 points scoredGameweek 1 underlying threat that resulted in low or zero points. One match is too small a sample to judge finishing talent.
Underlying production beat the actual returns
Isak blanked completely on his debut, taking home 2 points. He also posted 1.09 xG and 1.10 xGI over his 90 minutes. That negative variance of 1.09 between his goals and his expected goals is the largest underperformance of any player in the opening round. The chances were high quality; the ball just hit the keeper.
It is a similar story for Thiago, who registered 1.00 xG and 1.08 xGI against his name, ended on 0 points, and was dragged down by a -3.29 BPS per 90 rate. Wissa created 1.02 xGI and finished with a single assist because his own finishing underperformed his 1.00 xG by a clean unit.
Haaland blanked too, missing out on his 0.74 xG, but he still carries an 89.5 Master Score and a 66.6 fixture rating over the next five. Selling him after one match is the sort of thing people do when they look at the points tab instead of the match.
Man CityBournemouthMan UtdBrentfordeasierharderInternal model rating, 0 to 100. Not FPL's fixture rating.
Opponent defence ratings for upcoming fixtures. Higher score means an easier defensive opponent to attack.
What to do before the deadline
If you are holding Haaland or Isak, keep them. The underlying threat was there, and the fixtures over the next five gameweeks favor attack.
If you have a spare spot in midfield, look past the 48.1% owned B.Fernandes at £12.0m. Bring in Tavernier at £6.0m or 
Lewis-Potter at £5.5m, who logged 0.89 xGI and 10 defensive actions in his 90 minutes. It saves budget, beats the crowd, and buys into the right underlying numbers before the points catch up.