Stop chasing last week's points and buy Mbeumo

Cherki scored twenty two points in gameweek 2. Nearly a quarter of the game bought him on the spot. He got two goals and two assists from chances worth 1.40 expected goal involvement. He beat his xG by 1.65 goals and his xA by 0.95 assists in 108 minutes. It was lovely to watch, but it is a short sprint, not a plan.

The algorithm ranks players over the next five gameweeks using a composite Master Transfer Score out of 100. It looks past the noise of two matches and points straight at the players getting into the right places.

93.8Mbeumo score30.4% owned

89.2Foden score4.9% owned

87.7Thiaw score2.0% owned

Master Transfer Score covers the next five gameweeks based on fixture ease and underlying threat.

Mbeumo sits on a Master Transfer Score of 93.8. His teammate B.Fernandes sits in nearly half of all teams after a monster week, but Mbeumo is matching him for threat. He has recorded 2.70 xGI across 180 minutes, which works out to 1.35 xGI per 90. He scored once from 2.26 expected goals. He is 1.26 goals behind his underlying chances.

That gap is where the money is made. B.Fernandes costs 12.0m. Mbeumo costs 8.0m, saves you 4.0m, and is missing from 70 of 100 teams.

B.FernandesMbeumo

Price

£12.0m

£8.0m

Ownership

48.5%

30.4%

xGI per 90

1.42

1.35

Goals minus xG

0.9

-1.26

Data covers gameweeks 1 and 2. Mbeumo generates elite threat at a lower price.

Over at Manchester City, Haaland is owned by 70.6 percent of managers. His team faces COV at home this week and SUN at home in two weeks, sitting on a fixture ease rating of 76.1 out of 100 over five matches. But Foden is being ignored.

Foden costs 7.0m and lives in 5 of 108 midfield slots across the game. He has produced 1.84 xGI across two starts, operating at 0.97 per 90. He has zero goals from 0.99 expected goals and two assists. While managers pile into Cherki after a lucky afternoon, Foden is getting identical minutes and cleaner chances for a cheaper price tag.

MbeumoMUN mid, 8.0m, 30.4% owned

93.8 score

SakaARS mid, 9.5m, 10.5% owned

91.5 score

Gibbs-WhiteNFO mid, 7.9m, 9.2% owned

91.2 score

FodenMCI mid, 7.0m, 4.9% owned

89.2 score

ThiawNEW def, 5.0m, 2.0% owned

87.7 score

Master Transfer Score out of 100 over five gameweeks. Highlighted rows offer high value and low ownership.

Further down the order, Gibbs-White sits on a 91.2 score. He costs 7.9m and is owned by 9.2 percent of players. NFO host TOT this week and COV in two weeks, with a fixture ease rating of 57.8.

Saka holds a 91.5 score at 9.5m. He is owned by 10.5 percent of managers. ARS face CHE this week, but follow it up with SUN and LEE. He has posted 0.80 xGI per 90 and scored two goals from 1.27 expected goals.

GW3GW4GW5GW6GW7

Man City

COV (H)MUN (A)SUN (H)LIV (A)IPS (H)

Newcastle

BOU (H)LEE (A)HUL (H)COV (A)AVL (H)

Nott'm Forest

TOT (H)AVL (A)COV (H)CRY (A)ARS (H)

easierharderInternal model rating, 0 to 100. Not FPL's fixture rating.

Fixtures scaled 0 to 100 where higher is easier.

In defence, Thiaw scores 87.7 on the model at 5.0m. He is owned by 2.0 percent of teams. NEW have a fixture ease rating of 72.0 over five matches, facing BOU at home, LEE away, HUL at home, and COV away.

Two matches is a tiny sample. It tells us nothing about who wins the title, but it tells us plenty about who is getting into the box.

Before Friday's deadline, move for Mbeumo or Foden before the crowd notices the underlying numbers.