Target Manchester City and Newcastle as the fixture runs swing
Three clubs face exceptionally kind runs over the next five weeks while Arsenal and Chelsea brace for trouble.
Two matches tell us almost nothing about who a team actually is. What two matches do tell us, with absolute clarity, is who everyone is about to play.
The schedule clears out beautifully for a handful of sides starting this week. If you held off on heavy investment in 
Manchester City or 
Newcastle United during the opening fortnight, the window to buy them before the market catches on is open right now. These ratings are built on just two matches of data, so keep that context in mind, but the raw fixtures speak for themselves.
NewcastleMan City
Nottingham Forest
ArsenaleasierharderInternal model rating, 0 to 100. Not FPL's fixture rating.
Higher scores indicate easier fixtures based on our internal model after two matches.
The prime targets over the next five weeks
Our internal rating model ranks Manchester City fixtures at an average ease rating of 79.8 over the next five weeks. That is the highest score in the division. They host 
Coventry, 
Sunderland, and 
Ipswich at home before gameweek 8.
That makes 
Haaland look essential if you somehow started without his 70.6% ownership in your squad. But it also opens up space for double coverage in attack or defence. 
Cherki sits at 24.4% ownership at 7.7m with a fixture ease rating of 76.1 over the next five matches. 
Foden sits in just 4.9% of teams at 7.0m with the exact same fixture run. In defence, 
Guéhi offers clean sheet potential at 6.0m with a 62.9 fixture ease rating.
Average fixture ease rating over gameweeks 3 to 7. Highlighted players belong to Man City.
Newcastle have a similarly appealing path. They get 
Bournemouth and 
Hull at home over their next three matches. Their defensive fixture rating for hosting Hull in gameweek 5 hits 92 out of 100.
The traps you should avoid buying into
At the other end of the spectrum, Arsenal face an absurdly stiff test over the next five gameweeks. Their attacking fixtures carry an average ease rating of just 22.5. They host 
Chelsea this week where the opposition defence rates at 39 out of 100 for difficulty, before trip after trip to defensive brick walls. They travel to Sunderland, 
Brighton, and Nottingham Forest.
Saka is currently owned by 10.5% of managers at 9.5m, but bringing him in now means paying premium price for a run where four of five opponents carry attack ratings under 26 out of 100.
79.8Man City ease scoreBest 5-week run in the league22.5Arsenal ease scoreWorst 5-week run for attackers4.9%Foden ownershipAt 7.0m with top fixturesRatings based on match data from the opening two gameweeks of 2026-27.
Chelsea premium options are in a tricky spot too. 
Palmer has an overall fixture ease rating of 41.3 over the next five matches, facing Arsenal away this week where the host defence rates at 39 out of 100 for difficulty. Compare that to Cherki at 7.7m, who ranks second among midfielders with a 76.1 fixture ease score over the same five-week period.
CherkiPalmerSakaHigher fixture rating indicates easier run over gameweeks 3 to 7. Position rank from internal algorithm.
What to do before the deadline
If you have free transfers to burn before gameweek 3, hold back on Arsenal attackers and fund the move into Manchester City or Newcastle assets before price movements lock you out.