3 Sept 20263 min read

Cheap points rarely stay cheap for very long

A look at who actually earned their gameweek 2 hauls and who simply got lucky.

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The entire game is built on the lie that a 13-point haul is worth £15.5m when Haaland gets it, but only £5.5m when Groß does. They both go into your total identically. The problem is what happens next Saturday.

A player who scores from a chance worth 0.05 xG has done something delightful for your bank balance this week. He has also done something he will almost certainly not do again next week.

Not all budget hauls are built the same

In gameweek 2, 14 players managed double digit scores. Some of them spent the afternoon standing in front of an open goal, while others needed a deflection, a prayer, and a bit of luck to crack double figures.

When you look past the points column, the divide is sharp. Groß scored a goal and an assist against Chelsea from an expected goal involvement of 0.16. Dedić grabbed an assist and 11 points while generating an xGI of 0.06. That is not repeatable football. It is a nice Sunday afternoon that will mislead hundreds of managers into making a transfer they will regret by gameweek 4.

Compare those two with Haaland. The Norwegian matched Groß with 13 points, but did it from 0.66 xGI. That is four times the chance quality.

Gameweek 2 returns vs underlying chances

The budget enablers who actually deserved it

You do not need to buy £12.0m players to get honest underlying volume. A few bargain picks actually did the work to earn their points in this matchday.

Scott took home 12 points for Bournemouth while producing 0.53 xGI and racking up 15 defensive actions. That is a £6.0m midfielder contributing at both ends of the pitch. Over at Manchester United, Mbeumo costs £8.0m and delivered 11 points from 1.97 xGI. He actually underperformed his expected goals by 0.76. He did not get lucky. He was just dangerous.

Gameweek 2 expected goal involvement (xGI)

The premiums are still worth the cash

B.Fernandes put up 23 points this week. That sounds like a fluke until you look at the 2.50 xGI he accumulated against Ipswich. He generated 2.02 xG on his own and picked up 8 defensive actions. When a £12.0m player posts numbers like that, you are paying for reliability, not a lottery ticket.

Two matches is still a thin sample. You should not rewrite your team based on 180 minutes of football. But if you are chasing last week's points, make sure you buy the player who got the chances, not the one who hit a 30-yard volley that will hit the top tier next Saturday.

Before you confirm your transfers for this week, check the xGI column for the cheap players on your watchlist. If the points are there but the numbers are missing, leave them on the waiver wire.