Manchester City have the kindest run from gameweek 7
A six-match fixture swing favours Man City and Hull while Chelsea face a steep drop.
Six matches give us just enough data to mistake noise for a pattern. The ratings here rely on those six games, so take the raw figures with a modest pinch of salt. But while team form wobbles, the calendar itself is fixed. From gameweek 7, the schedule tilts heavily in favour of a select few sides while handing others a brutal run of opposition.
Man City
Hull
Tottenham
Chelsea
Nott'm ForesteasierharderInternal model rating, 0 to 100. Not FPL's fixture rating.
Ratings on an internal 0-100 scale where higher is easier, based on 6 matches played this season.
Manchester City sitting near the top of the ticker is rarely a surprise, but their upcoming run is remarkably kind. They open this week at home to 
Ipswich, who carry a defensive rating score of 69 in our internal model. A trip to 
Aston Villa follows with a defensive score of 75, before an away fixture against Nottingham Forest rated at 93 for ease.
Erling Haaland already sits in 75.3% of FPL squads despite his 15.6m price tag. He remains the obvious captain choice, but the fixture shift opens up real opportunity in their defensive assets.
Internal 0-100 ease rating averaged over gameweeks 7 to 11. Highlighted players face favorable runs.
Both Gvardiol and 
Guéhi enjoy a 65.2 average fixture rating over the next five gameweeks. Gvardiol is currently in 28.1% of teams at 5.8m, while Guéhi costs 6.0m with an ownership of 17.9%. Tripling up on City through midfield via Cherki at 7.9m or 
Semenyo at 8.3m also looks sensible, given both midfielders hold a 63.4 fixture rating across the same five-game stretch.
Outside the champions, budget enablers emerge in unexpected places. Belloumi leads all outfield players with a 69.6 fixture rating over the next five gameweeks. At just 5.2m and found in a mere 7.4% of teams, the Hull midfielder gives managers enough extra budget to upgrade elsewhere. Hull host 
Brentford with a defence rated 71 in gameweek 8 and Ipswich at 69 in gameweek 9.
CherkiPalmerFixture rating averaged over gameweeks 7 to 11 based on 6 matches played this season.
The contrast with Chelsea could not be starker. Cole Palmer commands a 9.7m price tag and a 25.3% selection rate, but his fixture ease score over the next five gameweeks tumbles to 36.2.
The picture is even grim for 
João Pedro. Despite being owned by 70.0% of the game, the Chelsea forward faces a 31.9 fixture rating over the next five matches. Paying 7.8m for a forward facing that sequence looks like an unnecessary risk when cheaper options have clear runs ahead.
70.0%João Pedro ownershipFaces a 31.9 fixture rating7.4%Belloumi ownershipTop rated fixture run (69.6)36.2Palmer fixture ratingLowest among premium midfieldersOwnership figures and fixture ease ratings heading into gameweek 7.
Other premium names face awkward runs too. 
Bruno Fernandes costs 11.9m and sits in 34.3% of teams, yet 
Manchester United hold a fixture rating of only 45.5 over the next five. 
Bukayo Saka at 9.6m faces a 46.7 rating with 
Arsenal.
Six games into the campaign, underlying team metrics are still settling. But calendar shifts do not rely on team form to be useful. Move on heavy Chelsea coverage before the gameweek 7 deadline and shift funds towards Manchester City assets or Belloumi while the runs remain green.